It’s do or die now for the Golden Girl

ANOTHER defining moment awaits the tug of war between two Democratic heavyweight contenders when their battle shifts to Ohio and Texas this Tuesday.

The spotlight is getting harsher on Hillary Clinton, who had been defeated in the last 11 rounds since Super Tuesday.

“If she loses either Ohio or Texas, her campaign for presidency will effectively be over,” said Michael Barone, US News & World Report senior writer and author.

Ominous words? But that is the prevailing calculation, as there seems zero possibility for her to overtake Barack Obama in the delegate count if she fails to capture either state.

A saving grace would be “a movement of opinion towards her and away from Obama, which I think is unlikely to happen,” Barone said in a video conference from the Washington Foreign Press Centre.

Five days prior to the big day, polls showed Hillary leading in Ohio, and Obama enjoying a slight edge in the state famous for cowboys and BBQ.

If she fails there, Hillary will have to win big among the 796 superdelegates – party leaders such as senators, governors, former presidents and vice-presidents.

“These people have a deeper knowledge of the candidates than the voting public. They know them personally, they have had a chance to assess them,” he said.

In the absence of a significant change in public opinion, Barone predicted that Hillary would quit the race by the next weekend if she failed in either Texas or Ohio. “If not, you would see a cascade of superdelegates endorsing Obama.”

That was why the Hillary Clinton campaign, which had previously sought endorsement among the superdelegates, was now saying: Please don’t endorse anyone for the time being.

“They are afraid of a cascading of support for Obama,” Barone said. Bear in mind, too, that most superdelegates would want to be on the right side of the presidential nominee.

The Democrat Party’s practice of proportionate representation in the delegate stake would mean that Hillary would have difficulty staying on for the Pennsylvania round on April 22. “She would be way behind in delegate count if she loses either Texas or Ohio.”

Under such circumstances, Barone believed that Hillary would drop out of the race and stay away from the Democratic national convention in August. “I don’t see the point for her to be there.”

Unless she wants to do an Edward Kennedy. In 1980, he went to the convention although he had only 40% of the delegates.

“He went there basically to make mischief for Jimmy Carter. I don’t think Hillary will have the same motivation. There will be tremendous resentment against her if she does that.”

What was the turning point that caused the golden girl to end up as underdog?

In Barone’s view, her defeat in the South Carolina contest last month was harmful to her.

“Four years ago, the prospect of an Obama candidacy was zero. Hillary’s assumption was that the southern states, where black voters are the majority or near majority, would be easy states.”

“In fact, as recent as December, she was splitting the black votes evenly with Obama in South Carolina, but that changed later. That contest showed her in a suddenly significant disadvantage, for reason worthy of a study.”

A New York Times column described Hillary as “one of the best known human beings on the planet; the face that launched a thousand books. And yet she has managed to become the most boring candidate in this (Ohio) primary.”

As lawyer turned fashion stylist Kalyn Johnson put it, the presidential campaign was gruelling but Obama had been a breath of fresh air.

“He is a good representation of the melting pot that America has become,” she said.

Presidential contenders are often scrutinised from A to Z by the American press. The NYT even examined how much the Hillary Clinton campaign spent on doughnuts (US$1,900 on Dunkin’ Donuts in Florida and New Hampshire and US$500 on Krispy Kreme in South Carolina).

Barone conceded that the American press had been rather easy on Obama as there had not been much critical look on his background. Obama himself hardly took questions from the press.

“The Clinton campaign says that the guy has been getting a pass from the media. I think they are right,” he said, citing Obama’s “strange” association with some left wing leaders.

His church leader, for instance, once gave an award to Louis Farrakhan, a leader of the Chicago-based Nation of Islam.

As always, there are plus and minus.

“Obama’s strength is the fervent support that he is getting from the people. He is drawing those who don’t vote into the electorate. These people have faith that he could make changes to society.”

But there are also those who feel that this devotion is over the top and unrealistic. “His experience is extremely limited on defence and foreign policy,” Barone noted.

One man, one woman, one Democratic winner. Bets are open.

Riding a black groundswell

THE Obama brand is unmistakable in Chicago as you listen to the locals chat about their Illinois senator.

There’s the passion – “he’s a great man” – and the fervour.

“We have had Harold Washington, who was the first black mayor of Chicago back in the 80s. Now, by voting for Barack Obama, it feels like we are being part of history in the making,” said Nataishia Kimmons, 22.

Hillary Clinton, ironically the original hometown girl, will also create history if she wins, but this fact is lost on most Chicagoans.

“You mean she was actually born here?” someone asked.

“Obama is more associated with Chicago. This is seen as his city. People know him for his work here,” said lawyer Brian Dunn, 33.

The Democrat presidential contender captured 70% of the votes in Chicago on Feb 5. Overall in Illinois, he got 64% compared with Hillary's 32%. Even white Americans here such as Dunn are backing Obama.

Chicago, nicknamed the Windy City, has a 2.7 million population, according to the 2006 American Community Survey. Of that, about one million are whites (36.5%) while blacks make up 35% (970,244).

Dunn remembered a Public Interest Law Week event in 2003 which was attended by former judges and lecturers.

“They were already saying back then that if ever there were a first black president, it would be him. He already had that reputation among those who have noticed him earlier,” he said.

Dunn remembered watching Obama from afar when he came to speak at his law school in Northwestern University in 2000. “He was impressive,” he said.

On Super Tuesday, Dunn and his wife Erica were glued to the TV to watch the outcome, although they knew he was going to win.

“My mother is also excited. She was for Hillary at first but, now, after seeing the two campaigns, she has converted to Obama.”

Kimmons, who works in a souvenir store, said: “It was simply crazy on Super Tuesday. People were going around saying, ‘go to vote’! I had wanted to pick Hillary at first but my friends were all saying ‘vote for Obama’.”

An African-American, Kimmons is part of a community that is gradually demonstrating its voting power.

“From the 2000 and 2004 elections, we saw a significant increase in African-American voters, particularly among those from the 18 to 24 age group,” said Hilary Shelton, National Association for the Advancement of Coloured People (NAACP) Washington bureau director.

“We’ve seen them, male and female, coming to vote in a much more partisan way than ever before.”

He said Obama’s support in Illinois was very heavily black.

“Quite frankly, you can’t win Illinois without the African-American community’s support in northern Illinois for a Democrat,” he told foreign journalists recently. “Every election that we’ve seen in recent history has required a strong African-American support to take the Democrats over the top.”

As Howard University political science professor Lorenzo Morris explained it, no Democratic president since Theodore Roosevelt had been elected on the white vote, except for Lyndon Baines Johnson. “Why? Blacks make up 12% of the population, but 25 to 30% of the Democratic Party.”

Some states such as Maryland are 30% black; and Virginia, 19%, he said.

Shortly after Obama won the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday, his campaign team sent out an e-mail at 11.41pm that night with the subject heading “What Tonight’s Win Means”.

Besides saying “thank you for making this possible”, the e-mail signed off simply as “Barack”, was also seeking donations.

It reflects how the Obama team is utilising the Internet to reach out to the masses as his fund-raising machinery seeks to hit the goal of one million donors by March 4.

By 2.17pm on Thursday, they had 939,706 donors. Thirty minutes later, the number went up to 941,595.

As Prof Morris put it: “How many of the voters could have spelt ‘Obama’ a few months ago? They got a chance to see him up close, and the media helped with TV presence.

“But also, along with the money came the ability to organise at the grassroots level.”

The 46-year-old senator’s campaign had been powered by small online donations, as pointed out by The New York Times. Last month, he received US$28mil (RM90.2mil) through the Internet, with 40% of the people donating US$25 (RM80) or less.

For ordinary folks such as Kimmons, Obama personifies the dream of black leader Martin Luther King.

“It’s something about black power,” she said.

Her colleague Angelica Niexes, 26, was also not much of a Hillary fan.

“I’m not trying to put her down but if this campaign can make you cry, what about the presidency? You’ve got to take care of the country,” Niexes said, referring to a January incident when Hillary teared up following a question from a New Hampshire voter on how she was coping with the presidential race.

But, as Kimmons added, “may the best man or woman win”. That’s what a lot of people here are saying.

Only billionaires need inquire

IT IS apparently no urban legend that a certain neighbourhood in New York City has more money than some of the impoverished countries out there.

Top donors to the previous presidential campaign came from the 10021 postcode here, according to a news report.

In Manhattan, there is high-wattage prestige in certain zipcodes and 10021 is a status symbol of sorts.

It hosts families with some of the highest incomes in the nation, said Anthony Grifa, who guides visitors on I’ll Take Manhattan walking tours.

“This is where some of the most expensive homes are,” he said. The zipcode covers the zone between Fifth Avenue and East River, from East 69th to East 76th Streets.

Billionaires Donald Trump and Rupert Murdoch are among the well-heeled who have offices or homes around there.

Grifa also takes visitors for walking tours called Mansions, Millions and Magnificence, to marvel at the architecture along Fifth Avenue Millionaires’ Mile.

No qualms to sharing a bit of gossip, Grifa pointed to a building where The Donald used to stay when he was married to first wife Ivana.

“A doorman there once told me that The Donald was the snootiest and cheapest guy in that building,” he said.

Incidentally, Trump has donated to the presidential campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. (US laws allowed individuals to donate a maximum of US$2,300 (RM7,400) to each candidate for the primary contests, and another US$2,300 for the general election.)

Hillary raised US$118mil (RM381.9mil) throughout last year while Barack Obama netted US$103mil (RM333.4mil).

The race to Washington requires money to oil the campaign machinery, and Obama has become a star in bringing in the dough.

He beat Hillary in the money battle when he raised US$32mil (RM103.6mil) last month alone, a record for someone who has not even clinched the nomination yet. That sum meant that he raised about US$1mil (RM3.2mil) each day.

Last month, an Obama fund-raiser held in a grand Manhattan hotel soaked up US$700,000 (RM2.3mil) from supporters like actor Richard Gere, director Spike Lee and model Iman, among others.

Donors to presidential campaigns have ranged from the teacher next door to New York supermarket tycoon John A. Catsimatidis, investor Carl C. Icahn and Brooklyn-born actor Eddie Murphy.

When hometown paper New York Post announced that it was endorsing Obama instead of Hillary, it raised eyebrows here for what was seen as a snub to the New York senator.

The tabloid’s owner, Murdoch, owns a three-storey penthouse on Fifth Avenue, which he purchased for US$44mil (RM142.4mil) in 2005.

Apparently, the 20-room triplex is located in a building which is also home sweet home to financiers and philanthropists.

In January, Starbucks chief executive Howard Schultz reportedly paid US$25mil (RM80.9mil) for a Fifth Avenue duplex, a four-bedroom pre-war property that faces Central Park.

Fifth Avenue is also home to the world’s largest Gucci store, sprawling across 4.273 sq metres over three floors.

Tiffany & Co, the renowned jeweller, has its flagship store on Fifth Avenue. So does Sony, Harry Winston and toy store F.A.O. Schwarz.

Top hotels such as The Peninsula and The Plaza are located nearby, too.

“This is one of the wealthiest and most elegant neighbourhoods in the United States,” Grifa said of Fifth Avenue.

“Most of New York’s wealthiest live here,” he said. “About 20 of the estimated 30 New York billionaires have homes in this area.”

Home ownership on Fifth Avenue is for the privileged few.

There was a board of trustees (of an apartment building) that required tenants to have US$100mil (RM323mil) in assets before they could move in, Grifa noted.

“Owning a Fifth Avenue apartment is like having a front row seat to the cultural and social life in New York,” said Ryan Brown, who helps run www.famegame.com, a site that provides connections to “influential people, parties, and projects in New York City”. It gets about 100,000 visitors each month.

Awesome facilities are available in these opulent homes – media rooms with arcade games, wall-sized flat screen TVs, rooftop terraces with outdoor cooking facilities and fireplaces; expensive and contemporary art, with everything at your finger tips.

Still, depending on the New Yorker you speak to, Brown said, Fifth Avenue could just be another street. Or, a place that stirs up scenes from Breakfast at Tiffany’s.

Super Tuesday laced with politics, fashion and football

IT was a day before the New York Fashion Week and politics got in the way. “We would love to dress Michelle Obama,” said Bud Konheim, the CEO of Nicole Miller, referring to the Harvard-trained lawyer wife of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

The topic somehow crept up while he was showing a group of foreign journalists a photograph of Angelina Jolie wearing Nicole Miller in 2005 (which, by the way, boosted sales of that same dress. “We sold thousands,” Konheim said.)

The 44-year-old Michelle, according to him, appeared confident with a good sense of style.

“She doesn’t look like she tries to be safe,” he said of Michelle, the mother of two daughters aged five and eight, who is just one inch short of being a six-footer. “She isn’t afraid to wear prints.”

What about Hillary Clinton, one-half of the famous Billary (Bill and Hillary) that is sometimes also labelled a two-headed monster?

“She doesn’t dress like she is interested in clothes,” Konheim said.

New York-based Nicole Miller was among some 80 top names that took part in what is officially known as the Mercedes-Benz Fashion Week that ended yesterday. Malaysia’s Yeohlee and Zang Toi were on the roll-call, too.

Recently, Hillary reportedly backed out of a photo shoot with Vogue out of concern that she might appear too feminine.

This led to retaliation from its editor-in-chief, the indomitable fashion guru Anna Wintour.

“The notion that a contemporary woman must look mannish in order to be taken seriously as a seeker of power is frankly dismaying,” she wrote in this month’s issue.

“This is America, not Saudi Arabia. It’s also 2008. Margaret Thatcher may have looked terrific in a blue power suit, but that was 20 years ago.”

ABC News ran a story titled “Super Style: Barack vs Hillary”, suggesting that “the business of image is front and centre” and that style was a priority.

But for now, fashion has to take a back seat for these two presidential contenders. Unlike the Republican presidential race in which John McCain seems a safe bet after the Super Tuesday showdown, the two Democratic rivals are still locking horns.

(Incidentally, the intrigue of Super Tuesday was edged out in the tabloids for two days when the underdog New York Giants defeated New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. It was frontpage news, kicking out politics. New Yorkers were beside themselves when a parade was held on Tuesday to welcome their footballers as adults skipped work and children missed classes just to see their heroes.)

With no runaway winner yet in the Democratic battle for the nomination, the fight looks set to spill over to other states such as Louisiana, Maine, Washington, Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin.

“There will be a long period of uncertainty for the Democratic Party,” said Maurice Carroll, who is director of the Polling Institute.

Carroll, who has clocked 40 years of experience as a political writer, said Obama and Clinton were essentially almost similar although their message was one of “change” versus “experience”.

“Ideological difference? Zilch. It is a matter of who you think will make a better president,” he told a briefing for foreign journalists on Tuesday.

Obama, he added, was a good speaker and mobilised young people.

“He is a very attractive candidate,” he said.

No wonder then that a former classmate of Obama was quoted by ABC News describing him as “fresh, young and inspirational. I often find his tall elegant stature reminiscent of that of a model in a Dior or Lanvin fashion show.”

Fashion, though, is surely the last thing on Obama’s mind right now.

Super Tuesday showdown

IT'S the season of superlatives as Americans go wild at the Super Bowl when the New York Giants clash with the New England Patriots in Arizona tomorrow.

Two days later, it will be Super Tuesday. Some even called it Super Duper-Tsunami Tuesday when presidential nominating contests take place in a record 22 states. Previous Super Tuesdays have not seen such a huge number of states holding their caucuses or primary elections simultaneously.

“It has never been this big. This one is seriously super,” said Prof Robert Shapiro of Columbia University.

These 22 states would be providing more than half of the delegates who would eventually pick the presidential nominee.

A Democratic contender requires 2,025 delegates to win the nomination; a Republican, 1,191.

Asked to describe the current battle for the Oval Office, Prof Shapiro replied: “I’ve not seen such an exciting election for decades.”

There is no clear favourite, although Hillary Clinton and John McCain seem to be the leading choice of their respective parties, Democratic and Republican.

John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani have dropped out of the race.

Giuliani crashed out of Tuesday’s primary election in Florida, a state he had been pinning his hopes on. But even a day before that, according to The New York Times, American reporters travelling with him were already quietly writing his political obituary at the back of the plane while Giuliani’s team sat in the front.

It is now Hillary versus Barack Obama for the party whose symbol is a donkey. For the Republicans, the battle is between McCain and Mitt Romney.

“At this point, it is hard to say, although Hillary Clinton still appears to be the leading candidate for her party,” said Prof Shapiro, who specialises in American politics.

Since 1989, Americans have had a Bush or a Clinton as their president.

McCain, on the other hand, “may well be the strongest opponent against the Democrats,” Prof Shapiro said.

RealClearPolitics.com, an independent website that collects polling data and news, found that Clinton and McCain are leading in California, New York and New Jersey.

These three states are among those that will send the largest number of delegates to their respective party national conventions where the presidential nominee will be selected.

“All signs point to a close race. There is a possibility that there will still be no clear winner (after Super Tuesday) for the Democrats,” Prof Shapiro said.

Attention would then turn to the nominating contests in the remaining states, he said. Or worse, it would be a very messy affair during the Democratic National Convention in August when the uncommitted delegates would be wooed from all sides.

Indeed, the Democratic race is stirring up much interest and debate among people. Obama has remarked that he “can’t tell whom I’m running against sometimes.” Well, that would be Billary (Bill and Hillary Clinton), in this age of TomKat and Brangelina.

As the rivalry hots up, the US press has observed that Bill Clinton was getting more unhinged as he campaigned for his wife, sometimes saying all the wrong things.

Desperate Husband, one columnist called him. Another report noted that “his face was turning red in public nearly every week”.

Indeed, politics is very much about appearances. So, amid all the talk about the possibility of a first woman president, a New York Post article gushed that Obama appealed to women in more ways than one.

“He is like a woman: slim, good looking, with long elegant fingers, appealingly dressed,” it said, adding that “he embodies many of the positive characteristics we tend to regard as feminine: sensitive and empathetic”.

The New York Times Magazine, in its Jan 20 issue, carried a Q and A with Maya Soetoro-Ng, Obama’s younger half sister who works in Honolulu.

Describing herself as Buddhist, she said she had a car sticker proclaiming “Women for Obama”.

Most Americans will say that the presidential election should not be about race or gender but what a candidate has to offer to his or her country.

Otherwise, as comedienne Whoopi Goldberg put it: “What am I supposed to do? I’m a woman, and I’m black.”